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FEATURE ARTICLE |
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Is the Generational Divide in Technology Widening?
Alex Daley Date: 06-07-2012 Subject: Casey Research Articles My son doesn't know how to use a mouse. He doesn't even know
what one is. As far as he's concerned, it's a furry animal he's only
seen in books and running around the floor of the Newark airport. While
I've known this for some time, it recently moved from the back of my
mind to front and center following a brief car trip a few days ago. From
the back seat, my eldest son who for some inexplicable reason loves
to watch the instructions tick by on the screen of the GPS unit sitting
on the dashboard requested that I program the unit to give us
directions home. I politely declined, pointing out that I couldn't be
messing around with the screen as I was already driving. He followed up
with that well-known, youthful naοvetι that borders on soul-piercing in
its effectiveness to point our shortcomings in ourselves and our world
by asking: "Why can't you just tell it where you want to go? Like the Xbox." "I don't know, son
" Unhappy
with the answer he'd received, the conversation then turned in the
direction of endless questions about computers versus video games versus
the car's GPS. In all the hubbub of explaining to my eldest about the
differences between them, especially how we interact with them, my
youngest, despite spending many an hour on particularly snowy Vermont
days upstairs in the home office playing Curious George games on the
computer, piped in abruptly: "Dad! Why would your computer have a mouse in it?! You're just making that up!" A
lot has been made over the past few years of so-called "digital
natives" children who were born and raised in the age of the computer.
Kids like Mark Zuckerberg, who was born in 1984, seven years after the release of Apple's first computer. For all of his life (and mine;
if I'm being honest, I'm not that much older than Zuck), computers have
been part of human existence. We were both part of the first
digital generation. But still, even then the computer was something
distinct from everyday life. It was culturally defining. It was epochal,
some might even say. But it was by no means universally prevalent. One
of my fondest childhood memories is of the arrival of a fresh, new
Tandy 1000 SL one Christmas morning. I remember it well. 50-odd lb.,
13-inch CRT monitor. Big honking base "CPU." Keyboard
and no mouse.
That came later, with the next-generation model. The
arrival of the Tandy was the moment we went from a family without a
computer to a family with one. I look back at it, and I like to think it
compares to the arrival of the first television set in many households
in the 1940s and 1950s. The family gathered around the set to watch Ed
Sullivan, neighbors aglow with jealousy. We were by no means the
first on the block to own a computer. Still, at that stage many a family
didn't yet have one. Maybe Dad or Mom used one at work, and of course,
our small suburban school had a little "lab" of them, used to mainly to
teach typing. So I'd used them before, on occasion, but the power of the
device and my borderline addiction to it was not apparent until it
invaded the home. Or at least my home (there is probably a good "nature
vs. nurture" debate in the evolution of the computer geek). But it
wasn't much like the arrival of the television at all. I only found out
years later that my mother had to work hard to convince my father that
it was more than his choice description "a $3,000 pet rock." We never
huddled around the phosphorescent glow of the screen as a family. My
brother ignored it nearly entirely (maybe that was only because I hogged
it?). The same was true for the majority of children in the original
group of digital natives: the computer was part of, but mostly
peripheral to, the average child's life. It was only a select set who
really made it a part of their everyday lives. Yet today that
seems to have changed, simply by the ubiquity thrust upon the current
generation of children. Computers, in the looser definition of the word
that includes smart phones, tablets, traditional PCs, interactive video
players, GPS devices, game consoles, and a host of other consumer and
business tools and toys, are everywhere. Our car stereos become
speakerphones and road maps on demand. We even use touchscreens to order
lunch at deli chains and burrito joints. Living a day free of
interaction with a computer is now much more difficult than it was for
the first digital cohort. Quantifying the impact of this
generational shift is difficult, if not downright impossible. But we can
garner quite a bit of insight from the anecdotal experiences we have
with our own children today. I am a father of two wonderful sons, ages
four and six. As you can imagine, given my geekish tendencies and a
career centered on being up to date on some of the most advanced
technologies around, my home is replete with the latest gadgets
everything from the run-of-the-mill consumer electronics to quad copters
and 3D printers. Amongst the most prized of those gadgets (from
the perspective of my six-year-old at least) are the video game
consoles. We have a Wii, a Playstation, and most notably for this story,
an Xbox with the Kinect attachment, hooked into the surprisingly
modest-sized television in the living room. (I've never been a prime
time TV or sports addict, so a TV bigger than the 37-inch LCD is one of
those things I occasionally think of grabbing, but never bother to.) For
those of you unfamiliar with it, the Xbox with Kinect allows you to
eschew the traditional joystick and instead use gestures to control the
game. No controllers. No remotes. Just stand in front of the three-eyed
digital camera contraption and it senses where your head, heads, feet,
etc., are and where they are moving to. The resulting paths of motion
are translated by the console into swipes that slide content along the
screen, kicks that send virtual soccer balls flying, and (thanks to some
munificent math by game designers) Olympic-record-breaking long jumps
you'd never be capable of in real life. The Kinect is not the only sensing device on the market. The video below highlights another one, the Leap Motion: This
video shows the power of these devices firsthand. Like the Kinect, like
the multi-touch screens of the iPhone, iPad, Androids, and other
devices, the Leap Motion captures far more than just the location of a
single dot. Instead it maps a wide variety of motions onto a map of
intended actions. It attempts to allow for natural gestures to become
the language in which we communicate with our computers. It's not
uncommon these days for kids to experience computing without the
traditional tethers of keyboard and mouse, or even remote controls and
game controllers. These novel, unwired interfaces are not only coming to
market, they are on the verge of becoming ubiquitous. Take
another keyboard- and mouse-free device for instance: the iPad. Just a
little over two years after its introduction, the touchscreen-centric
iPad is the number-one selling non-phone personal computer in the world.
It outsells in sheer volume of units shipped the total of all computers shipped by any one of the top PC makers in the world: HP, Dell, Lenovo, etc.
That's all their many models of desktops and laptops rolled into one: Or
consider the iPhone, which is the number-one selling phone in the
world, hands down. Its next closest competitors virtually all sport
touchscreens as well. Now, 50% of all phones sold in the US are
smartphones, and virtually all are powered by touchscreen interfaces. But
iPad- and iPhone-like touch-based devices are just supplements for most
households in the developed world (in developing nations, like most in
Africa and large swaths of Asia, increasing numbers of households count
their smartphones as the first and sole computing device). In the West,
the touchscreen-centric devices add to their owners' computers, but
still rarely wholesale replace them. The Western world, even at home, is
still dominated by Windows and traditional Macs. However,
recently Microsoft announced that its Windows 8 desktop operating
system, due out this fall, will be fully touch enabled. In other words,
its interface will look much more like the iPhone than it does the
traditional Windows interface hundreds of millions of people know today.
In fact, it will look exactly like the interface on the new Windows
phones, dubbed "Metro." (Click on image to enlarge) The
sleek, tile-based interface is meant to work on touch screens that vary
in size from phone to wall uses. And all at the tip of your fingers.
The multi-touch revolution is literally remaking the computer as we know
it. And more and more often, users children especially will be able
to simply eschew the mouse and even the keyboard. That's because
it's not just touch that Microsoft is eyeing. The same gesture and voice
technologies that control the Xbox will also be brought to Windows 8 as
well. The company already produces a Kinect for Windows, and
hackers have been busy working on connecting the device to older
versions of Windows and to a whole host of other devices, including
robots: With devices like the Leap Motion following the Kinect, gestures may someday become as common as the touchscreen is today. You'll
be able to use your machine's microphone to control it as well.
Microsoft already brought speech recognition to cars with Ford and
Fiat's infotainment systems, and now it plans to make it ubiquitous in
every device it touches. We've just begun what promises to be a
wholesale revolution in the way we interact with computers, as big or
larger than the introduction of the mouse and graphical user interface,
yet already, the first crop of these devices is beginning to change the
entire way we think about interacting with computers, from top to
bottom. First, it's not that we have "a" computer; we now have
multiple computers. And they carry names like "phone," "tablet," and
"Xbox." With each, we touch the screens, talk to them, wave at them, and
expect them to understand what we're doing. Increasingly, they even
interact back with us through speech or by navigating our physical
world. By the time my sons reach 8 and 10 I was 10 when I
received my Tandy, which came standard with a 256-color video graphics
setup that I thought was pretty awesome at the time the term "click
here" will have about as much personal relevance to them as "turning"
the channel or "dialing" the telephone. The fact that I had to
"sit down at the keyboard" to type up this message is even a half-truth.
I've been bitten by the speech recognition bug, and the majority of
what you read here was spoken aloud to my computer, which did the typing
for me, whilst I paced around my office. For me, that's still
novel. But for my sons, who have known nothing different in their short
lives, gestures and voice controls and touchscreens are so common that
they now expect as much from every new device they encounter. To them,
it makes no sense that they cannot just talk to the GPS (something
which, now that it's been pointed out to me, seems equally preposterous
given its position inside the car where inevitably both of my hands will
be otherwise occupied at the 10 and 2 positions on the steering wheel). The touchscreen is for them sons of a geek the lowest common denominator. Everything does that. Speech? Gestures? Why not? User
interface expectations are built very early on. Painted on the blank
canvas that is a screen, they often come to be based on metaphors we
know from our previous lives. Once comfortable with the way things
work, it takes a pretty large benefit for us to change our behaviors (if
that were not the case, the iPad onscreen keypad would have used the
Dvorak layout, which has been proven time and again more efficient for
typers than the QWERTY keyboard, which was invented to minimize
mechanical movement and thus repairs of mechanical typewriters like
the metric system for most American people, it's just not enough better to make it worth even considering). It
is likely for this exact reason that, despite my penchant for gadgets,
we still live in an iPad-free household. It's because Dad (i.e., me this
time) doesn't like the thing. I find it terribly constrained. I cannot
bear to type on the screen. There's no easy way to position the screen
to a good angle. But most of all, I hate not having a file system where I
can download a presentation and leaf through it, making small changes,
adding slides, etc. The idea that a computer doesn't contain folders and
files is as foreign to me as the lack of voice control in the car's GPS
system is to my sons. Luckily, as one of the technological
one-percenters from my own, original digital-age group, adjusting is
easier for me than for most. I almost never thumb in a message on
my Android phone. I rely instead on the excellent voice recognition
built in (I only wish there was a button on the phone to hold to put it
into voice mode, like on the iPhone). I use the Kinect voice
controls regularly... so much so that given the choice between hopping
around the nice "Metro" interface of the Xbox with my voice commands and
trying to surf through cable channels, I end up watching "reruns"
(another of those archaeologically rooted technical terms) on Netflix,
via the Xbox, every single time. (Bonus: I never have to find that
darned remote again!) My youngest son, sneaking upstairs for some
additional fun with Curious George's online games, has (largely
unnoticed by me until now) made the same choice with the computer in my
office. He's elected to exclusively use the giant touchscreen I
installed up there as a geeky thing for me to explore and mostly never
use as his sole input device. To him, the mouse on the desk might as
well be the furry little creature, as it is has just as little to do
with the computer as its mammalian namesake. No, for my two young
sons, their Tandy moment will not involve a black screen with blinking
cursor. They may not even have a Tandy moment; or they may have had many
much smaller ones already. Maybe, just maybe, they may never even know
what it's like to understand a colossal leap forward in technology
stepping into their lives seemingly overnight. After all, for them,
computing is already an immersive experience one where you interact
with dozens of devices, each purpose-built for its task, each designed
to work around you, rather than you having to bend to their somewhat
quirky and limited means of interaction. While members of my
generation were the original "digital natives," things will look much
different viewed through the eyes of our own children. What to expect of
computers has changed in a seeming flash. But still, the geek in me
knows deep down that it is precisely because many of the most inclined
in their generation like me, Zuck, and millions of others in the prior
age cohort will be as frustrated by the limitations of what today's
adults dreamt up that they too will work to throw them out and replace
them with something even further, inspired not by Star Trek, whose vision of the user computer interface wasn't much beyond what's in the Xbox and iPad, but maybe by Ready Player One
or even Harry Potter. The
implications of this trend loom large for investors as well. The new
paradigm for computing is about natural interaction. And any company
that ignores it will ultimately limit its market going forward. PCs ate
the mainframe. The Blackberry destroyed the mobile phone. The iPhone
wiped out the Blackberry. The Xbox trounced the Wii. What will the next
major shift in the interface bring? Time will tell, but our experiences
thus far suggest the mouse will likely play a lesser role, and our
hands, voices, and maybe even just our minds will play a much larger one. I'm excitedly awaiting the arrival on my doorstep of a novel "learning" thermostat (yes, I'm that kind of geek). Just adjust the temperature by turning the dial as you
go in and out, as you wake and get ready to sleep, and it learns your
patterns, creating a constantly adapting program to both make you
comfortable and save energy. It adjusts to weekends it knows what date
and time it is. The weather it knows where you live. When you aren't
home it has motion sensors. Cool stuff. But when it arrives, I
am sure my son will ask why I have to "turn the dial" in the first
place. Why can't I just tell it to make it cooler? Why not, indeed
As
amazing as these advances are, they all are driven by the brilliant
individuals whose visionary dreams guide their work. To be in on the
companies most likely to survive the stiff competition in tech, an
investor must understand this and keep up with the ever-shifting front lines of the tech wars. |