A definition,
as applied in this article
EXTRA: Above normal product demand, usually for something intended
to be stockpiled for that proverbial rainy day.
In 1973, a
US Navy procurement officer asked the Navys toilet paper provider
what would happen if the Navy needed to simultaneously re-supply
all ships. The person he asked made some calls to find out how long
it would take industry to supply that much EXTRA demand.
Someone involved
told some friends the Navy was actually planning to buy a huge supply
of toilet paper, warned that this would lead to a temporary shortage,
and suggested that everyone should buy a few EXTRA rolls to avoid
running out. Each of those persons told several acquaintances that
story, each of those told several others, etc. Within days, that
story was a nationwide rumor, and everyone knew a shortage was immanent
the ultimate self-fulfilling prophecy.
Within days,
a panic run on toilet paper occurred. For months, it was impossible
to routinely buy toilet paper. Retailers imposed strict purchase
limits. Throughout the country, millions stood in line for hours
awaiting delivery just to buy any toilet paper.
Similarly, in the early nineties, some government thug wondered
if it would be possible to manufacture ammunition with a limited
shelf life. They asked someone in the industry to consider that
possibility. Even though doing so was impossible, a rumor spread
that shelf-life-limited primers were coming. Shooters and handloaders
wanting to stockpile EXTRA supplies created a shortage.
DBI Books
asked me to investigate that shortage. I spoke with representatives
of every free-world primer manufacturer. Those conversations were
most enlightening. Many of those revelations are basic to understanding
the current shortages of ammunition, components, and related items.
One of those
conversations revealed a fact that will surprise many readers: One
of the largest primer producers in the US told me in confidence
that his company was making less quarterly profit on primers during
the primer shortage than it had made before the panic-driven shortage
began.
While it had
stepped up production to the extent feasible, its production costs
had increased so much that both profit margin and absolute profit
had decreased. This really surprised me because retail primer prices
had doubled.
Recently,
we had a situation that created a similar run on certain guns and
magazines. That panic-driven run fizzled out when it became obvious
that the underlying, unconstitutional law would expire.
Last fall,
the obamination occurred. This event created a panic-driven run
on guns and all related items. Unlike the previous panic-driven
runs, this run is not based upon rumor or perceived threat; every
real American should intuitively understand that this threat is
very much, very real.
If you do
not believe this, you are part of the problem one of those
who would sacrifice freedom for the illusion of a little temporary
safety and, as Benjamin Franklin noted so acutely, you deserve neither.
When will
this shortage end? Before I offer a pessimistic partial answer,
consider that in 2007 and 2009 the Cortez Rifle and Pistol Club
held Gun Shows. In each of those events, we had a similar number
of vendors who, in total, displayed a similar number of rifles.
In 2007, two M-99 Savages were exhibited; in 2009, I counted 26
before loosing interest. Why such a difference?
In 2007, short
of a total economic catastrophe, few would have considered selling
a family heirloom; in 2009, many viewed that family heirloom as
a source of money with which they could buy something perceived
as being far more important (e.g., primers, ammunition, etc.).
When will
this panic driven shortage end? Not until panicked people run out
of money.
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