Don't Believe The Hyped-Up Same-Store Sales, Retail Sales Were Very Bad

07-10-2010 • Businessinsider.com/

For one thing, notes Mike "MISH" Shedlock author of Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, the same-store sales gainers benefited by the general reduction in store locations. Essentially, survivorship bias is skewing the numbers. If somehow you could take into account all the locations that had been shuttered, you'd see that things were much worse. And there's evidence for this, notes Mish. State sales tax collections remain depressed, with no indication of a rebound. That, more than the corporate numbers, is the key thing to pay attention to. And with states thirsting for cash, this is a crucial problem that will play out in terms of further budget cuts, and a further drag on the economy. Ultimately it's all about jobs. Without a jobs recovery, there will be no consumer recovery, and without a consumer recovery, there's little reason to be excited about the market or the economy.

1 Comments in Response to Don't Believe The Hyped-Up Same-Store Sales, Retail Sales Were Very Bad

Comment by Olde Reb

Entered on: 7/12/2010 5:29:22 PM

The real indicator is sales, and if sales tax revenue was good, the state income sheets would not be so bad.

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