Paul has consistently placed in the top tier of Republican presidential candidates in recent Iowa polls. With Iowans heading to vote in only three weeks, Gingrich holds a razor-thin 22–21 lead.

The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, found weakening support for Gingrich among self-identified tea partiers, and a dramatic rise in Paul’s favorability rating.

“There are a lot of parallels between Paul’s strength in Iowa and Barack Obama’s in 2008 — he’s doing well with new voters, young voters, and non-Republican voters,” said PPP in an explanation of its poll’s findings.