New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary

Mitt Romney continues to lead the New Hampshire Republican Presidential Preference Primary with 35%. Jumping into second place is Ron Paul with 21%. Newt Gingrich is now in third place with 16% and Jon Huntsman is in fourth place with 13%.

In April, support for Romney was at 32%. Romney was at 29% in June, 30% in September, and 33% in November.

Romney leads among registered Republicans with 44% (up from 36% in November), followed by Gingrich at 20% (down from 25% in November) and Paul at 15% (up from 8% in November). Among undeclared voters (independents), Paul now leads with 30% (up from 19% in November), followed by Huntsman at 25% (up from 14% in November), Romney at 22% (down from 26% in November), and Gingrich at 10% (down from 19% in November).

Romney leads for the first time among Tea Party supporters with 44% (see Tom Thomson's endorsement), followed by Paul at 19% and Gingrich at 17%. Among those likely voters saying they are not Tea Party supporters or that they are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 31%, followed by Paul at 22%, Huntsman at 18%, and Gingrich at 16%.

Paul supporters tend to be younger (age 25-44), undeclared (independent) voters who play back this "kooky" Paul television ad (older Paul supporters like the "Ron Paul Family Cookbook"). In this survey, these Paul voters say they are as likely to vote on January 10 as registered Republicans.

Details from the survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters conducted December 11-14 can be found here.

December 12, 2011

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus

Newt Gingrich leads the Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus with 22%. Gingrich is followed by Mitt Romney and Ron Paul at 17% each, and Rick Perry at 13%.

Among registered Republicans, Gingrich leads with 23%, followed by Romney at 19%, Perry at 14%, and Paul at 13%.

Among likely Republican caucus-goers saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, Gingrich leads with 27%, followed by Romney at 19%, Michele Bachmann and Perry at 14% each, and Paul at 12%. Among likely caucus-goers saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or that they are undecided about the Tea Party, Paul leads with 21%, followed by Gingrich at 18%, Romney at 16%, and Perry at 12%.

Among likely Republican caucus-goers saying they will definitely participate in the caucus, Gingrich leads with 22%, followed by Romney at 18%, Paul at 16%, and Perry at 13%.

Details from the survey of 600 likely Republican caucus-goers conducted December 8-11 can be found here.