05-24-2012
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http://www.businessinsider.com, Also Sprach
Given the consensus remains hugely delusional and bullish, this is probably the most bearish I have come across. From the China International Capital Corp (CICC), they believe that if Greece exits the Euro, China’s economy growth would be cut down to just 6.4% for 2012 without fiscal stimulus, which is 1.7 percentage point lower than their base case:
Financial markets have recently been under pressure due to the political turmoil in Greece, as the country’s exit from the Eurozone appears more likely. A Greek exit from the euro would have a negative impact on China’s exports and domestic monetary conditions. However, the impact may not be as strong as that of the 2008~2009 global financial crisis, given the share of exports in China’s GDP has declined and the negative impact of the European debt crisis has already been partly felt, as evidenced by China’s current economic slowdown. Assuming a Greek euro exit drags down global economic growth by half as much as the 2008~2009 global financial crisis did, China’s economic growth would fall to 6.4% in 2012, 1.7ppt lower than our baseline forecast of 8.1%.
