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News Link • Economy - Economics USA

Virtual Economy's Phantom Job Gains Are Based on Statistical Fraud

• http://chrisinmaryville.net/
Washington can't stop lying. Don't be convinced by last Thursday's job report that it is your fault if you don't have a job. Those 288,000 jobs and 6.1% unemployment rate are more fiction than reality. In his analysis of the June Labor Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, John Williams (www.ShadowStats.com) wrote that the 288,000 June jobs and 6.1% unemployment rate are "far removed from common experience and underlying reality." Payrolls were overstated by "massive, hidden shifts in seasonal adjustments," and the Birth-Death model added the usual phantom jobs. Williams reports that "the seasonal factors are changed each and every month as part of the concurrent seasonal-adjustment process, which is tantamount to a fraud," as the changes in the seasonal factors can inflate the jobs number. The monthly unemployment rates are not comparable, so one doesn't know whether the official U.3 rate (the headline rate that the financial press reports) went up or down. Moreover, the

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