There's still some negotiating to be done, but this is a big step. If all goes according to plan, the two sides will sign a comprehensive agreement by June 30, and the West will lift all sanctions on Iran's banking and oil industries. Some analysts predict that the impending flood of Iranian oil could drive prices down to $20 a barrel.

On a more bullish note, global demand for oil could surprise to the upside this year. And there's also the serious risk that Saudi Arabia's oil exporting infrastructure could be damaged if its intervention in Yemen backfires.

Back in the US, Chief Energy Investment Strategist Marin Katusa says that the plummeting rig count should eventually lead to lower US oil production. Indeed, this week marked the first weekly fall in US output in two months.

This all adds up to a fuzzy outlook for oil. But Technical Analyst Dominick Graziano has a clearer view. His charts suggest that oil appears to have bottomed.

A word of warning, though: oil stocks are still expensive relative to the price of crude. And there's this: fund managers who held on to oil stocks are only just starting to capitulate.