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IPFS News Link • Politics: Republican Campaigns

How to Lose a Winnable Election

• http://spectator.org, By David Catron

Here's some electoral history that Donald Trump's supporters should consider before voting in their GOP primaries: Since 1972, no Republican presidential candidate has won a general election with less than 30 percent of the Hispanic vote. Nixon, Reagan, and both Bushes received between 30 and 40 percent in their successful presidential bids. All of the GOP losers from 1976 through 2012 received between 24 and 27 percent of the Hispanic vote. This includes George H. W. Bush, who lost in 1992 after his percentage eroded to 25 percent from the 30 percent he garnered in his successful 1988 campaign.

It's probably not necessary, as one GOP pollster has claimed, for the 2016 Republican nominee to win 40 percent of the Hispanic vote to reach the White House. It is, however, obvious that the nominee will have to do far better than the 27 percent received by Mitt Romney. And that's never going to happen if the Republican nominee advocates deporting 11 million Hispanics, including many who were born here, while vowing to eliminate birthright citizenship under the 14th Amendment. In other words, if the GOP is myopic enough to nominate Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton will be the next president.


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