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News Link • Iraq

Is the Battle for Mosul Doomed?

• http://nationalinterest.org, Daniel L. Davis

Yet an examination of the battlefield reveals that from the perspective of ISIS, it could be argued that the fight is going better than expected. Such a belief is not without substance.

Iraqi prime minister Haider al-Abadi claimed last week that he was very pleased with his troops' progress. "We have seen the whole organization collapsing in terms of standing in the face of our own armed forces," he said, adding that the "success of liberating a huge area indicates that Daesh does not have the gut[s]" to stand and fight. Yet the number of villages and square kilometers of land retaken tells only part of the story, and may be deceptive by itself.

Mosul is a city with a population close to two million. ISIS is alleged to have begun the battle with no more than ten thousand fighters. Unless they are militarily inept—which doesn't appear to be the case—they never planned to even attempt to hold the entire city from the coalition, so the rapid capture of scores of villages should not surprise anyone. The only plan that ever made any sense from a military perspective was to conduct a fighting withdrawal to a prearranged and secure position deep within Mosul.

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