Despite today's surge in global equities, which may be as much driven by the France relief rally as the unwind of recent hedges, the latest attempt to reignite the reflation rally is fading as US Treasury yields have given up on much of the overnight move, following two weaker than expected "soft data" reports, the CFNAI and Dallas Fed, released earlier today.

However, while today's soft data disappointed, there real reasons are to be found elsewhere. First, as Citi itself points out, discussing its own economic surprise index, Citi's ESI has slumped and the underlying data has also turned down, and adds that in both cases, this has occurred at levels where previous post 2009 data cycles have turned over.