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In "Significantly Great News" China Parts Ways With Yellen, Refuses To Hike, For Now


When the Fed last hiked rates by 25bps in March, China's central bank followed suit almost immediately by engaging in a "soft" hike, raising the rate on its various reverse repo operations by 10bps.

But not this time: when the PBOC announced its daily reverse repo operation last night, which saw a net injection of CNY 90 billion in the market, traders were only looking at one thing: whether the PBOC would again raise rates on its various reverse repos. It did not, and as we remarked last night, the PBOC instead kept all open market operation rates unchanged at 2.45%; 2.6%; 2.75% for 7/14/28 day repo.

As JZ Securities' chief economist Deng Haiqing summarized, the PBOC's decision not to follow Fed is "significantly great news" for bonds.

Why did PBOC chair Zhou Xiaochuan "break stride" with Yellen? For one, it is possible he is simply late - after the Fed raised rates in December, the PBOC didn't follow suit until February.

However, this time, Bloomberg thinks the split may be for real: it suggests "Zhou sees more autonomy to address domestic challenges, with the yuan holding stable and tighter capital controls keeping outflows at bay. More independence allows China's policy makers to shrug off Fed tightening for now, as there are already signs growth will slow in coming quarters amid curbs aimed at cooling the property market."

Helping the PBOC's "independence" is the recent blow out in spreads between China and the US. The yield gap between U.S. and Chinese 10-year sovereign bonds widened to a two-year high of 150 basis points on June 6, compared with less than 90 on March 15. That means there's less appeal for moving money to the U.S., easing the pressure on outflows.

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