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Doug Casey On Why Gold Could Go "Hyperbolic" . I find this quite reasonable .......

• https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/economics/doug-c

The question is how much should the average person own in physical gold. I view this as a safe haven asset and not count on it appreciating tremendously.

Rayner-Hilles

Rayner-Hilles

3 days

It's a sound article, but let us not underestimate how many fools are out there who's first reaction (or legal compulsion) in a financial panic is not to buy gold with dollars, but sell gold for dollars.

As Doug correctly alludes to, gold goes hyperbolic when the solvency of the banks comes into question. However those kinds of questions can be far down the road for a lot of people who, out of what I'd call "sociopolitically rooted emotions," simply do not possess the imagination for catastrophe to even question commercial banking solvency & the central bank's power to guarantee that solvency without igniting hyperinflation.

Guaranteeing bank liquidity, after all, would in the event of a bank run, cause an unacceptable amount of currency to flow into the real economy. If we had in paper what is theoretically in the books being perpetually reinvested for evermore gain, it would be Weimar Germany all over again. Guaranteeing bank solvency, of course, would be the greatest legal gymnastic trick in history. But history shows you should never underestimate desperate politicians.

In the event of even quite a severe bear market in assets, gold could take a serious plunge before we arrive at the "international debt crisis" stage where it would soar, because I believe-- I'm open to counterpoints on this, -- it has been bought as a hedge against inflation and illiquidity; it has not been bought as a hedge against hyperinflation and banking-insolvency. In between those two motives for purchasing gold is a deep dark valley of monetary deflation within asset finance that could motivate a whole lot of selling.

With gold it really comes down to how much intelligence and freedom is in the system. If you're betting on it to rise in the short run, you are betting on the rational self-interest of the average investor. Of course if that were true, we'd probably not be preparing for full systemic collapse of global banking in the first place.

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