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Does A Tesla Going Private Transaction Make Sense? Here's The Math

•, by Tyler Durden

What would such a deal look like?

First, the baseline parameters as defined by Musk: At $420 per share, and using an estimated 186.5MM diluted shares outstanding (including exercisable options, and convertible debt that would theoretically be in-the-money), the implied equity value is approximately $78BN. When combined with an adjusted net-debt of approx. $6BN, this implies an  Enterprise Value of $84BN —which indicatively is 23.5x Goldman's 2020E EBITDA estimate and 17.5x consensus EBITDA.

The next logical question is what could potential financing and interest expense look like post an MBO, in other words, what does the math of the proposed deal look like? It is here that things quickly turn ugly as an analysis by Goldman's David Tamberino finds.

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