Every year, Bloomberg New Energy Finance publishes its Electric Vehicle Outlook, a long-term forecast of how electrification will proceed over the next couple of decades. The 2019 EV Outlook examines such topics as how shared mobility will impact vehicle sales, trends in the commercial vehicle market, and the outlook for battery prices and battery chemistry.
The annual EV Outlook includes an analysis of the cost of purchasing an electric vehicle, compared to the cost of a comparable legacy vehicle. At a certain point, EVs will become cheaper than their gas-burning counterparts, and when that point is reached, revolutionary changes in the auto industry will start taking place quickly.
As BloombergNEF's Nathaniel Bullard explains in a recent article, not only are we getting closer to that crossover point every year, but, because EV powertrain costs are falling faster than anticipated, the predicted time until the crossover point keeps shrinking. In 2017, BloombergNEF forecasted that the crossover point would be reached in 2026. Last year, the crossover point had snuck forward another two years, to 2024. According to the latest analysis, the magic moment will arrive in 2022, at least for large vehicles in the European Union (other vehicle classes and other markets will reach price parity somewhat later).