Readers will have anticipated the bursting of the bubble that has been re-inflating ever since 2009. Ultra-loose monetary policy, coupled with deflationary pressures from increased aggregate supply and investors chasing yield at ever higher risk, meant that almost all asset classes had reached all time highs just before entering the current bear market.

That there is a bubble, a massive one, is unquestionable. Readers will further have anticipated that it didn't have to be a global pandemic to burst this bubble. This bubble was practically looking for a prick - any prick - to burst it. Whether it was a credit event, liquidity shortages that led to bankruptcies, a terrorist attack, a natural disaster or a bat: markets had reached a level of fragility where they could not cope with the materialising of such a tail risk event.

Too much had fueled this fragility: out-of-touch credit ratings, leveraged balance sheets, stock buybacks, expansionary monetary policy and as a result: out-of-control credit and debt.

Market outlook

Expect companies in energy to go bust first. Then retail and hospitality. At some stage their bankruptcies will push creditors into a corner where such lenders will either have to be bailed out or they will drop like flies (Lehman style). Already banks have slowed their credit lines to corporates, like in 2008/2009, anticipating that some of their debtors will fail to repay.