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IPFS News Link • Currencies

Rabobank: "Just Wait Until We All Get New Woozly Digital Currencies"

• https://www.zerohedge.com, By Michael Every

"Tracks," said Piglet. "Paw-marks." He gave a little squeak of excitement. "Oh, Pooh! Do you think it's a—a—a Woozle?"

The Woozle Effect, also known as evidence by citation, occurs when frequent citation of previous publications that lack evidence misleads individuals, groups, and the public into thinking or believing there is evidence, and nonfacts become urban myths and factoids. Using that definition, contemporary neoclassical economics is a complete Woozles. Name the economic theory and it will have been proved wrong - yet that lack of substance doesn't stop it being taught or given as policy advice to politicians. I have made similar points on economics before, but it really does matter if the assumptions we base our market thoughts on are Woozles, and so we find ourselves, like Pooh and Piglet, walking round and round a larch tree in the snow, following our own footprints, and thinking a sustainable recovery is always just ahead.

It's good news US jobless claims are below 1m again – but they are still nearly 1m, not the usual 250K. President Trump can proclaim he will cut the capital gains tax to 15% if re-elected, and that this will jumpstart investment and jobs, and he will find economic backers among those with capital, and maybe some voters, but he won't find any scientific evidence.

Turkish President Erdogan argues higher interest rates cause higher inflation and lower interest rates, lower: with TRY at 7.35, French forces in the Eastern Med, and an emergency EU Foreign Relations Council meeting today to address Turkish behavior, it is an interesting time to be talking about cutting rates again.

Chinese data disappointed overnight, with industrial production at 4.8% y/y (vs. 5.2% expected), retail sales -1.1% (vs 0.1%) and fixed assets at -1.6% y/y YTD (in line), all as property investment leaped 3.4% (vs. 2.5%) as new home prices shot up 0.5% m/m. So production up and spending down. Not so much "dual circulation" evident there yet – unless it means another housing frenzy to try to mop up excess supply and exporting the rest as per usual.


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