Quick comment on markets this morning before I go back to looking at the Coronavirus.
We seem to be in a phoney war at present. Markets are waiting for direction. Tech stocks continue to recover from last week's down-blip – although Apple stumbled following the new iWatch and iPad launches y'day. Maybe it's time they actually invented something new rather than just fleecing Apple Addicts with product upgrades every couple of years…?
I suspect we will experience another bout of pain in October. That's often the worst month.
The main factors keeping the market buoyant include:
1) Relative Value – stocks are massively inflated, but look much better value than anything else.
2) Central Banks – still in "do-anything-it-takes-mode", although they may struggle as governments rein back economic support.
3) Improving expectations on a Coronavirus outcome – treatments and vaccines
4) The ongoing retail bubble driving momentum trades – Tesla is only worth more than good more profitable firms with equal longevity only because the fanboys think so. Reality ain't getting a look in.
Reasons to be fearful are equally simple: