Toward this end, cold data in the face of historical facts and current recessionary realities will make gold's rise easier to grasp.

Let's start with the cold data, which centers around officially reported real rates and relative USD dollar strength, two current and key headwinds to gold's rise.

Cold Data Point 1: Real Rates

As we've written previously, there is a clear inverse relationship (95% correlation) to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and the gold price.

Stated simply, when inflation outpaces the yield on the 10 UST, the net result is a negative real rate environment. Conversely, when rates (as defined by the yield on the 10Y UST) are above inflation, we have positive real rates.

Gold, as a real asset that produces no yields or dividends, shines brightest when real yields/rates are negative.

After all, when bonds produce negative returns, investors look more favorably toward real assets like precious metals.

Today, one would think that soaring Year-over-Year (YoY) inflation in the U.S. at 9.1% (and closer to 18% using the more honest 1980's CPI scale) against a 2.89% nominal yield on the 10Y UST would seem to be a screaming indicator of negative real rates and thus a profound tailwind for gold, right?

And as to inflation, we said over a year it ago it would skyrocket while Powell promised it was "transitory."