Earlier, we got the January PPI number telling us that things are still somewhat under control on the inflationary front. Perhaps. Perhaps not. Cotton begs to differ. In a month and a half, cotton has risen 44%: since there have been about 44 days in 2011, that means about a 1% a day. Since our first warning back in September, when the world's most worn commodity passed $1, cotton is up 95%. Annualized, the YTD move in cotton is 1,512%. We are confident clothing makers and retailers have extensive hedges in place to counteract a move that will send margins negative shortly unless there is an appropriate hedge offset, or corresponding jump in prices. Either way, BTFD.
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