Until now, in our Non Farm Payroll growth forecasts, Zero Hedge had been using 90,000 as the number of monthly jobs the US should be creating each month just to keep up with population growth. However, per the CBO budget released in January, it may be time to revise this estimate. As the chart below shows, according to the traditionally optimistic Congressional Budget Office, the US has to create 121,000 jobs per month in 2011 just to keep pace with population growth. This number declines modestly over the next several years, but still averages 106,000 per month over the next 5 years. And the kicker is that this number does not account for the 3 million people who are not currently in the workforce that the CBO defines as Potential Workforce. Assuming the inflow of this portion of the population into the workforce over the next three years, it adds an additional 83,000 people that have to be incorporated in the work force. This means that in 2011, in the "best" case scenario, the monthly NFP number has to be over 200,000 before the unemployment rate is reduced by even one basis point excluding the impact of the BLS' favorite trick of fudging the labor force participation rate, which we have discussed extensively in the past.
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