The Bernanke experiment with massive money-creation has been going on for a few years. The Fed has fought the "bogeyman" of deflation with huge infusions of liquidity. Ben Bernanke, our Fed Chairman, is convinced that if he creates enough liquidity, housing will levitate like the stock market, and business will, in turn, rocket up with the stock market. The Bernanke creed: "Give them the money, and they will spend, once business improves, businessmen will hire again, and the unemployment problem will be solved". I believe this theory will be put to the test during the remaining months of 2011 and into 2012.
What do I see ahead? The debt and deficit problems alone will keep the market and the economy on edge. The Dow can levitate just so far with the help of enormous Fed-created liquidity. I think we are close to the upper extreme of the Dow level now. "So what's really new about the current situation?" you argue. My answer is that we are, indeed, experiencing something very new. Never before in history have trillions of dollars been manufactured out of busy computers -- all in an effort to create a bit of inflation in the face of world deflationary forces. Furthermore, much of the happy market action has been created by an anxious Fed with the help of enormous stimuli. Soon the stimuli will end. And that will have a negative effect on the markets, particularly the stock market. At the slightest sign of a 'double dip,' I think the Fed will turn to Qe3 and more money creation.
"But what about the dollar?" you ask. I'm convinced Bernanke is willing to sacrifice the dollar in his relentless effort to jump-start the US economy.
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