Turning back to the U.S., Retail Sales were reported on consensus, rising 1.0% in February which is up from .3% in January. As you read the non-thinking report from Econoday, keep in mind that Retail Sales are measured in dollars. If real inflation is 12%, then it would take a 1% monthly rise to mean that REAL sales are even. Also remember that this report contains huge errors due to substitution bias – that is that it only measures sales at stores that have been open for 12 months or more, those that have gone out of business are simply tossed aside. This is the same exact error that causes people to think that STOCKS rise over the long haul when in fact stocks on a whole do not rise in the long run – they live through a life cycle and eventually die. It is only the indices that rise, and that rise over the long haul is ONLY due to substitution bias.
Strong showing from consumers? No, what you have are consumers who have no choice but to buy more expensive everything – gas, food, clothing. When the cost of things consumers buy goes up without a corresponding increase in income, then the added expense works as a tax, taking discretionary spending away from consumers. In that circumstance, it will result in an APPARENT surge, followed by collapse. That is what I expect to see given the fullness of time.
My thoughts on the market are admittedly turning dark. I no longer value technical analysis because I know how subverted the markets have become with the “Fed” and large banks directly playing with them – they ARE the markets as they comprise the vast majority of transactions. Thus the markets are not real, they are simulated and manipulated devises run by the powers who create money from nothing. I think it’s flat out foolish to support such insanity with your own money and efforts. It’s all fraud, all the time. I see no instrument that I consider SAFE. I see a tsunami coming, and it’s going to wash all that false paper away – unfortunately, I can’t tell you when and believe that you should ignore those who think they can. All I know is that the math is impossible, and thus in the big picture it won’t be too long.