While the majority of the world was in a sleepy mood courtesy of closed core capital markets, events in Syria were anything but. From Reuters: "Syrian security forces killed almost 90 protesters on Friday, rights activists said, the bloodiest day in a month of escalating pro-democracy demonstrations against the rule of President Bashar al-Assad." Yet while many are quick to dismiss "yet another MENA revolution", Emad Mostaque, MENA strategist at UK's Religare Capital Markets begs to differ. "The market implications of a breakdown in Syria would be profound, but likely not be felt immediately as it doesn’t tick the boxes for proximity (such as Bahrain) or oil production (such as Libya). Iran’s influence would be curtailed, as would support for Hezbollah and Hamas." But the mittelspiel does not end there, and will likely have even greater consequences on Israel: "A third intifada between Israel and Palestine is already likely following a series of rather unpleasant attacks from both sides and a Syrian breakdown would heighten the chances of an Israeli attack on Lebanon, particularly given the success thus far of their new Iron Dome anti-ballistic system (even stops mortars)... A conflict like this would raise the chances of a follow up attack on Iranian nuclear facilities...
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