It is still not too late to short that consumer discretionary basket, albeit with a footnote: whatever you do don't short the ultra luxury retailers. Those will be doing very good, courtesy of all their shoppers having the Amex Discount Window credit card. Everyone else: better luck next time. As the chart below from BofA shows the May retail SSS data turned very sour with 12 misses and only 5 beats, and just like every other segment, very soon the stock market, which since Jackson Hole has been reacting to newsflow like a retárd, will finally grasp that even with nobody paying their mortgage, the reality of diminishing squatter returns is unavoidable. That said, since the data comes from Bank of America, naturally there would be a scapegoat: "may results were negatively impacted by unseasonably cool weather as well as pressure from high gas prices." That's ok: In keeping with tradition, QE3 will very soon be blamed on unreasonably normal weather.
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