But can we pinpoint the timing of a revolution? No. No one saw the Arab Spring coming. Taleb offers a simple reason: “The bigger the historical event, the more random and unpredictable the consequences. Nobody saw 9/11, Pearl Harbor.” Nor predicted the JFK assassination, Hiroshima, Rome’s collapse, Black Plague or Microsoft and Apple’s beating IBM. Nor the 1929 Crash, 2000 dot-com crash, 2008 subprime meltdown. All game changers.
But our leaders ignored warning signs. “Everything just happened when it did, everybody was caught with their pants down, and everybody just had to deal with the massive unpredictable consequences afterward.”
Is Trickle Up capitalism, a long-time peeve of Farrell's and something we discussed over the weekend, to blame for what is coming?
But is an America Winter really next on some cosmic list of future Black Swans? Yes, and also quite predictable. Why? Because the same economic forces that drove the Arab Spring and today’s European Summer are setting up a hot American Winter.
The Inequality Gap is that force. The gap divides the Super Rich 1% from the rest of America. In “The American Interest” a few months ago Francis Fukuyama, a leading neoconservative, wrote: “A study by Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez shows that between 1978 and 2007 the share of U.S. income accruing to the top one percent of American families jumped from 9% to 23.5 % of the total. These data point clearly to the stagnation of working-class incomes in the United States: Real incomes for male workers peaked sometime back in the 1970s and have not recovered since.”
Warning: The last time this Inequality Gap was this big was just before the 1929 Crash and the Great Depression. Trickle-up capitalism: The rich get richer, the masses get poorer. It happened with Arab dictators, in Europe, and it’s coming to a head in America.
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