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News Link • Government Debt & Financing

"Growing Your Way Out of Debt" Is a Fantasy

• OfTwoMinds.com/blog
 
Add rising interest payments and higher taxes to declining assets and incomes and you don't get "growth," you get insolvency. The Status Quo consensus is that "kicking the can down the road" a.k.a. "extend and pretend" will work because "Greece, Spain, Ireland et al. are going to "grow their way out of debt." That is a fantasy. Here's why. 1. There's a funny little feature of debt called interest. The Status Quo solution for Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain et al. is A) increase their debt load with more loans and B) roll over their old debt into new loans, without the old lenders taking any "haircut" on the principal. Both of these "solutions" add more interest costs. That means more of the national income stream must be diverted to pay the lenders their pound of flesh. That means there is less money in the national economy to buy goods and services, which means the economy must shrink to pay the higher interest costs. This is why unemployment in Spain and Greece has skyrocketed and why 100,000 small businesses have closed in Greece in the past year. 2. A funny little feature of interest is that when people see you're at risk of default, they start charging you more to borrow their money. And it isn't a tiny bit more interest, it's a lot. Think subprime teaser loan at 3% shooting to 8%, or 28% if you're trying to sell new debt on the open market. For the E.U. to "help" Greece and Ireland by rolling over their already crushing debt loads into new, higher interest loans is like "helping" a sick patient by sticking a knife into their back. 3. Governments over-promise future benefits to win elections in the here and now.

1 Comments in Response to

Comment by G Cone
Entered on:

It's like losing a bunch of money at a casino and feeling like if you just keep throwing more money down you will eventually get back to even. 


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