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Non Farm Payroll: Time To Recognize Reality Yet?

This looks like we're just barely positive on employment trends. But that's misleading, and misleading the public is what the media is all about this morning, as they're saying that we had a positive number. We most-emphatically did not. What's even worse is that both the workweek and hourly earnings decreased. That is, while prices go up on commodities, including food and energy, your earnings are going down not only in inflation-adjusted terms but also in nominal terms! That's just plain old-fashioned bad. What's worse is that the population increased by 176,000 but the household survey says that only 101,000 jobs were added. That is, 75,000 fewer people were working when one adjusts for population change. This is what I have repeatedly pounded the table on - the employment rate is going the wrong way and there has been no improvement of materiality in it whatsoever. When adjusted for population change, which is the number that matters not only for private prosperity but also for government funding sustainability, we appear to have topped out and are once again rolling over. Bluntly: This report just plain sucks and is further validation of my thesis that government deficit spending does not create lasting economic recovery - it instead creates asset bubbles and distortions. Time to face reality folks.

1 Comments in Response to

Comment by Doug Nusbaum
Entered on:

I stop reading as soon as I come across a statement whose level of stupid is on the order of 2+2=6. We have a population in this country of about 330 million, and 175 million at full employment. Only about 1/2 you say. Well, yes, since it is assumed that the 20% under 16 do not work... Duh. That is about right what with children, the elderly. I mean not everybody works right? Infants do not work. Most people older than say 80 do not work. But in this authors scenario every human works. 176000 new people is not 90000 new jobs. No, here even newborns drop out of the vagina right onto an assembly line. Seriously??? 

There is no cure for stupid!!

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