Any time a major bank releases a report saying a given course of action
is too costly, too prohibitive, too blonde, or simply too impossible, it
is nearly guaranteed that that is precisely the course of action about
to be undertaken. Which is why all non-euro skeptics are advised to
shield their eyes and look away from the just released report by UBS (of
surging 3 Month USD Libor rate fame) titled "Euro Break Up - The Consequences." UBS conveniently sets up the straw man as follows: "Under the current structure and with the current membership, the Euro does not work. Either the current structure will have to change, or the current membership will have to change."
So far so good. Yet where it gets scary is when UBS quantifies the
actual opportunity cost to one or more countries leaving the Euro.
Notably Germany. "Were a stronger country such as Germany to leave the
Euro, the consequences would include corporate default, recapitalisation of the banking system and collapse of international trade.
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