The Phoenix area's median home price is likely to fall to a decade low of $100,000 in November, according to a predictive indicator of future home prices based on current pending home sales.
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service Pending Price Index is based on pending sales in the multiple-listing-service database, where most, but not all, Phoenix-area homes for sale are listed.
The index provides a fairly accurate forecast of pricing trends as far ahead as 90 days.
The listing service describes it as a tool for strategic decision making by real-estate brokers, agents, buyers and sellers.
The latest Pending Price Index, issued Wednesday, predicts a median home price of $110,300 in September, $105,000 in October and $100,000 in November.
Last month's index for August missed the mark by $100, predicting a median sale price of $110,000 for all homes listed for sale via the listing service.
The actual median price for listed homes sold in August was $109,900.
The Phoenix-area housing market has taken on a split personality in recent months, with homes valued at or below $100,000 selling almost as soon as they hit the market, while demand has nearly disappeared for homes priced above the Federal Housing Administration's guaranteed loan limit, currently $346,250 in Maricopa County.
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