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Population expert Jason Brent weighs-in on Lester Brown

In this continuing series, you will hear from various experts around the planet on the overpopulation predicament facing America, Canada, Mexico and most other overpopulated countries around the world.
You ask, “What do you mean America and Canada are overpopulated?” 
Simple answer: they cannot be sustained on their own resources, water and energy.  Therefore, in 2011, they fit the definition of being overpopulated.
Jason Brent weighs in on the conversation:
“My position is very simple--- the exploding population of humanity will lead to the destruction of our species,” said Brent.  “Recycling, environmentalism, new technologies and anything else humankind can think of will not prevent our destruction until and unless population growth is reduced to zero and more likely until and unless the absolute numbers of our species is substantially reduced below the current 6.7 – 6.9 billion of us.
“As you may be aware some experts, whatever the word "experts" means, set forth cogent and well supported arguments that our planet cannot support at any reasonable standard of living more than one or two billion of us. James Lovelock of Gaia fame believes the number is one billion or less and David Pimental of Cornell University believes the number is two billion or less. While these experts may be wrong, humanity ignores them at humanity's risk. Humanity cannot afford to throw their ideas under the rug.
“While I have not read everything written by Brown, I have read many of his works starting with his work at the www.WorldwatchInstitute.org . All of his ideas and plans are very interesting and worthwhile, but they are useless unless our exploding population is brought under control. Population grows in a compound/exponential/geometric manner and compound growth is the most powerful force in the universe, it overwhelms everything. If population were to grow at the compound rate of one percent per year, population would double every 70 years and in 700 years population would be over 1000 times as great as when it started. Using a short a period of time, if population were to grow at the compound rate of one percent per year in just 210 years population would be eight times as great as when it started.
“In his last book Brown, to the best of my recollection, wrote that population has to be stabilized at 8 billion or less by the year 2040. He did not state how this could or would be accomplished. However, he did mention generalities including the ones set forth in Ms Salzman's e-mail to me. To the best of my recollection the 8 billion number he used was the low projection most recently made by the UN. The UN periodically makes various projections about the human population. The three most important ones are the low, the high, and the medium and of these three the most important one is the medium projection. Some of what I'm going to set forth in this e-mail is contained in an e-mail dated December 23, 2010 which I sent to Lester Brown –copy attached.
“According to the UN's official documents its medium projection was based on--
" Total fertility in all countries is assumed (emphasis added) to converge eventually toward a level of 1.85 children per woman".
“ According to Webster's New World College Dictionary, Fourth Addition, the word "assumed" is defined as "pretended, put on, fictitious, taken for granted" and according to Webster's Universal Encyclopedic Dictionary the word "assumption" is defined as "assuming that something is true, a statement of fact taken for granted" .
“ According to the same UN documents its low projection is based upon--
 "Under the low variant, fertility is projected to remain 0.5 children below the fertility in the medium variant over most of the projection period. By 2045 – 2050, fertility in the low variant is therefore half a child lower than the medium variant. That is countries reaching a total fertility of 1.85 children per woman in the medium variant have a total fertility of 1.35 children per woman in the low variant at the end of the projection period".
“In simple terms, the UN's projections are based on assumptions and not based on a detailed analysis of the facts. Nothing I could find put out by the UN lists all of the factors for and against their "assumption" that the total fertility rate will be reduced from the current 2.55 – 2.60 to 1.85 children per woman. In my opinion, the reason for the assumption made by the UN is that if the UN were to assume that the total fertility rate exceeded the replacement level of 2.06 – 2.10 children per woman, humanity would be forced to face the fact that major changes must be made in every aspect of civilization as continuous population growth cannot and will not occur on the finite Earth.
“To bet the survival of humanity on an assumption made by the UN is the height of arrogance. For Lester Brown to use the low variant or low projection made by the UN in his writings is just plain wrong. In his writings Lester Brown does not indicate what would happen to humanity if population were not stabilized at 8 billion by the year 2040 or 2050. Lester Brown in his writings does not in any manner provide evidence which supports the assumption that population will stabilize at 8 billion by the year 2040 or 2050.
“There are two and only two points in time that population can be stabilized – before humanity has exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth (no matter how carrying capacity is defined) or after humanity has exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth.. If population is stabilized after humanity has exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth, it will be stabilized by war, with or without weapons of mass destruction, disease, privation, ethnic cleansing, rape, murder and other horrors beyond the imagination. No one wants population to be stabilized in that manner.
“Therefore, if humanity is going to survive population growth must be stabilized before humanity reaches the carrying capacity of the Earth. There are two and only two ways by which population growth can be reduced to zero prior to reaching the carrying capacity of the Earth--- by the voluntary action of all of humanity for as long as humanity exists on the planet or by coercive population control in a manner similar to what has occurred in China.
“The following statement is as close to absolute truth as any statement has ever been made by any human being. If population had to be reduced from the current 6.7 – 6.9 billion or from the estimated 9.2 billion which will exist by the year 2050 to 1 or 2 billion in order for humanity to survive on this planet for any reasonable period of time, that reduction could not and will not be made by the voluntary action of humanity. The only way for that reduction to be made would be by coercive population control in a manner similar to what has happened in China.
“They cannot be any dispute whatsoever that a reduction in population would place tremendous strains on every aspect of society and cause major problems for perhaps hundreds of years. However, humanity will have to suffer those strains and solve those problems if our survival depends upon a reduction in the number of human beings which can exist on the planet. A separate essay is required to set forth the facts as to why humanity would not reduce its population to 1 or 2 billion by voluntary means. If you believe that humanity would voluntarily reduce its population to 1 or 2 billion, I ask that you send me an e-mail with the facts supporting your position.
“While I could set forth many reasons why humanity will not even reduce population growth to zero in time to prevent the horrific deaths of billions, you could dispute those reasons. In reality, question becomes--- can humanity afford to gamble its survival on the possibility that humanity will voluntarily reduce its population growth to zero in time to prevent the deaths of billions of human beings? Unless humanity can be assured that voluntary action will reduce population growth to zero in time to prevent the horrible deaths of billions of human beings, humanity must consider coercive population control on a worldwide basis similar to what has occurred in China. This paragraph refers to reducing population growth to zero and does not even consider reducing the absolute number of people as set forth in the previous paragraph.
“Now getting back to Lester Brown and why I believe his writings are misleading and useless. None of his writings, of which I am aware, go into a detailed analysis of how and when human population growth will be reduced to zero or how the absolute numbers of human beings can be reduced below the current 6.7 – 6.9 billion of us who inhabit this planet. As indicated above, his latest book merely states that population should be/will be stabilized at 8 billion or below before 2040 or 2050. His latest book did not consider how the UN arrived at its medium and low projections--- he merely used the UN's numbers. As indicated at the beginning of this e-mail population is the key to the survival of humanity and his Plan B is useless unless population growth is controlled.
“As indicated above, since I don't have his latest book in front of me I don't remember what was set forth in Chapter 11 and I don't remember what he wrote about education lack of woman's rights and economic power insofar as relates to population. However, to the best of my recollection he did not present any evidence that improving the education of women, improving their rights, and/or improving their economic power will ensure that population growth will be reduced to zero in time to prevent the destruction of civilization as we know it.
“Is very nice talk or write about the education of women, their lack of rights and improving their economic power, but there isn't any evidence that we can raise the status of women fast enough and throughout the entire world in time prevent the destruction of civilization. In my opinion, we cannot afford to gamble the deaths of billions of human beings on the hope, and it is only hope, that raising the status of women will solve humanity's population problem. And, more importantly, there isn't any evidence whatsoever that raising the status of women, no matter how defined, will permit or cause a voluntary reduction in the absolute number of humans on the planet, if that is necessary, in time to prevent the horrific deaths of billions.
“Can you make an intelligent and factual argument that humanity can raise the status of women fast enough and over all of humanity in time to reduce population growth to zero prior to a highly destructive catastrophe? Can you make an intelligent and factual argument that raising the status of women will cause a reduction in the absolute number of humans on the planet, if that is necessary, prior to the horrific deaths of billions of our species?
“I will admit that the words are used in calling Brown a fool are perhaps too harsh. However, all of his writings don't discuss the most important problem facing humanity and are therefore misleading and harmful. I plan to respond to the details contained in Ms. Salzman's e-mail when I get back to my home in Las Vegas, about the end of January or early February. One last comment---the mention of coercive population control will probably cause both of you to think I am a madman or a facist or racist, or---you fill in any word you want. I assure you that I am none of those things. Rather, I am a human being deeply concerned about the future and I am prepared to defend my position that humanity must, at least, call a conference of the best minds on the planet to consider all the options, including coercive population control.”
Brent raises the bar to the current ‘mild’ level of the population equation and discussion.  More thinkers and writers need to follow his lead before the human race ‘hits’ that magic number of 9.2 billion within 40 years. 
In a five minute astoundingly simple yet brilliant video, “Immigration, Poverty, and Gum Balls”, Roy Beck, director of www.numbersusa.ORG, graphically illustrates the impact of overpopulation.  Take five minutes to see for yourself:
“Immigration by the numbers—off the chart” by Roy Beck
This 10 minute demonstration shows Americans the results of unending mass immigration on the quality of life and sustainability for future generations: in a word “Mind boggling!”  www.NumbersUSA.org
If any of us, no matter what our race, creed or color might be, refuse to engage our U.S. Congress as we have not for 30 years as to the population/immigration equation-our children will find themselves living in a terribly degraded America where the American Dream will be described by the history books as a 'fleeting fantasy' from the era of 1950 to 2010.
These are several of the top organizations where you can take collective action to change the course of American history as well as in Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia. Take collective action at:
This is the best website to start:  www.numbersusa.org ; watch Roy Beck’s “Immigration by the Numbers” at 14 minutes. Bi-partisan and very effective. Become a faxer of pre-written letters to your reps to make positive  change.
Must see DVD: "Blind Spot" www.snagfilms.com/films/title/blind_spot/ , This movie illustrates America's future without oil, water and other resources to keep this civilization functioning. It's a brilliant educational movie! www.blindspotdoc.com
Must see: Rapid Population Decline, seven minute video by Dr. Jack Alpert-
Must see and funny: www.growthbusters.org ; www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXSTrW_dARc
Dave Gardner's Polar Bear in Bedroom:
growthbusters.org/2010/03/save-the-polar-bear-in-your-bedroom ; Dave Gardner, President, Citizen-Powered Media ; Producing the Documentary, GROWTH BUSTERS; presents Hooked on Growth: Our Misguided Quest for Prosperity, Join the cause at www.growthbusters.org ;760 Wycliffe Drive, Colorado Springs, CO 80906 USA; +1 719-576-5565
Check out this link with Wooldridge on bicycle and Lester Brown and panel discussion:
Tomorrow's Americaproject on www.youtube.com/contemporarylearning.
Producer: GEORGE A. COLBURNwww.tomorrowsamerica.com
DC: 202-258-4887
Link to www.tomorrowsamerica.com for more discussions on America's predicament.
Frosty Wooldridge has bicycled across six continents - from the Arctic to the South Pole - as well as six times across the USA, coast to coast and border to border. In 2005, he bicycled from the Arctic Circle, Norway to Athens, Greece. He presents "The Coming Population Crisis in America: and what you can do about it" to civic clubs, church groups, high schools and colleges. He works to bring about sensible world population balance at www.frostywooldridge.com He is the author of: America on the Brink: The Next Added 100 Million Americans. Copies available: 1 888 280 7715