Brock Lorber

More About: Economy - Economics USA

Credit Suisse Predicts Happier Consumers if US Government Defaults

If a shortcut that bypassed the downtown district allowed you to travel 50% further on a tank of gas, would that be a bad thing? Credit Suisse thinks so.

How about if you were gifted a machine that increased your production 50%? Would the ability to purchase 1.5 loaves of bread per hour of labor vs. 1 be a nightmare scenario? Apparently, yes, in Switzerland.

You see, in the absolutely zero-chance event of a US government default on debt obligations, Credit Suisse predicts a 30% drop in stock prices. Presumably, that drop will be measured in US dollars, as if a dollar is a static tool, like a yardstick or scale, that can be used for such measurements.

Now a 30% haircut, if you are a stockholder, wouldn't equal the best day you've ever had. But, if you are a dollar holder, suddenly the same money that would now buy you 10 shares of XYZ Corp. will buy 14 or 15 shares.

In other words, the dollars you hold would appreciate almost 50% and Credit Suisse thinks that's a bad thing. In fact, their prescription in that scenario is for you to sell your dollars and buy yen!

However, the Swiss bank also predicts a 5% decrease in US GDP. Whoopity doo! Last time I had my calculator out, 95% times 1.5 equals 142.5%. That means, in terms of stocks, even after a 5% nominal drop, the real GDP would be 42.5% higher than it is now!

Of course, it's all academic, as the US government will not default (the argument isn't even about defaulting). The debt ceiling will be raised, ensuring more of your children's and grandchildren's stuff will be taken from them under the pretense of giving them more stuff to take. Credit Suisse's prediction of a 3% increase in the stock market will be closer than anything to reality, and people will invariably follow their prescription to buy dollars, worth less than they are today.

You didn't seriously think there was an option on the table that would benefit you, did you?

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