Article Image Ernest Hancock

Letters to the Editor • Pandemic

Did the US Draconian Measures Work?

Did the draconian measures of shut down the United States economy actually work? I looked back to the first reported case in the United States and made some comparisons between the US, Italy, and Sweden.

Italy and Sweden largely ignored the measures that the US implemented and did not shut down everything as the US has. Looking at the charts below, it truly calls to question did all the draconian measures work, which is going to have a long term damaging effect to the economy.

The charts show the reported confirmed cases in each nation. It appears that the growth has been the same regardless of the shut down economy. Calculating the growth rates from the first case within each nation to today 07/10/20 or 171 days from the first reported case in the US they are all very close see the table below (lower rates are better).

So the now becomes would it have been more effective to shelter those that are vulnerable (weakened immune systems, etc.) and make sure they had proper protective equipment, while the rest of the population which is general healthy allow the virus to run it's course and thus build herd immunity.

I model these numbers every day from the raw data on the Johns Hopkins Git repository for some medical professionals. It appears the US is not declining but rather growing faster. I look at the rates of decline as well as the rate of growth. The US rate of decline has been decreasing for several weeks, which is an indicator of growth.

When summer wanes and fall waxes how fast will the US grow again? Should we continue to destroy our economy and many peoples small businesses based on an measure that may not actually be working?

Dr. Tom McKellips, DM