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Tone has worked on Wall Street for almost 10 years starting as a Risk Analyst at Bear Stearns and later becoming a VP at JP Morgan Chase in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. His expertise is in Economic Trends, Trading and Risk Analysis. Ever since getting involved in the Crypto Currency ecosystem in early 2013, he has been very active in spreading the relevance and importance of this technology as it helps promote economic freedom. Tone was recently featured in a Bitcoin Documentary – Magic Money. He was formerly Head of Research at BraveNewCoin after previously writing about trading and economics at CoinTelegraph. Tone is now an independent content creator at LibertyLifeTrail focused on sound economics, privacy, free-thinking and adventurous travel. Tone holds a Masters Degree in Financial Engineering from Florida State University along with Bachelor Degrees in Mathematics and Geology.
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TONE'S RECENT ARTICLES...
Bitcoin's Time Analysis & Significance of August 11th, 2017
Posted on July 11, 2017 3:34 pm by
When I started being a content creator in the Crypto Space over 3 years ago, all my articles were being published on CoinTelegraph (besides this website) and I decided to do a different kind of analysis on August 31st, 2014. The Article was titled "Intro to Time" and it had one of my favorite art covers to date:
The article also featured the table above with key dates in the life-cycle of Bitcoin and while I myself did not take the Mid June 2015 date seriously, I do not plan to make the same mistake again Mid August 2017.
I have been a fan of Martin Armstrong's work for a long time and even attended several WEC conferences over the last few years. I give him lots of credit for helping me understand Global Economics, Capital Flows and the concept of time being Cyclical and NOT linear. So just as a thought experiment, I decided to apply the most basic idea from Martin's writing to Bitcoin. this concept that since time is cyclical we can represent the number Pi in terms of days (or years) and apply it to get some useful dates to keep an eye on in the future.
In it's most basic form, taking the number Pi = 3.1416 and giving it a multiplier of 1000 = 3,141.6 days. Converting this number to years by dividing it by 365.25 = 8.6012 years.
NOTE: I used 8.61 years in the original article as I divided by 365 instead
So at this point 8.6 years represents one full cycle and the most critical day for Bitcoin going forward (more on this later). We can also consider multiples of this day as slightly less significant, which is why in the 2014 article I was looking at half and quarter cycles to find dates of significance to keep an eye on (more on this later as well)
This cycle needs to be applied from some starting point. While several options were available like Publication of the Bitcoin White Paper and the first popular financial transaction giving Bitcoin a price, the most logical one seemed to be the generation of the Genesis Block on January 3rd 19:05:05 UTC Time.
NOTE: At this point I would like to thank Mark B for providing a Python script in order to remove all rounding errors when determining the date. The code will be at the bottom of the articles for those interested in running it on your own.
Using this code we are provided with a a key date August 11th, 2017 which is exactly 8.6012 years from the Genesis Block. This was the date I was referencing as "Something Big" on 2017.62 in the Original Article back in 2014.
Back in August 2014 the price of bitcoin was around $500 coming down from the $1200 all time high but rising from the low in the $300's it made 3 month's prior. It was impossible to tell if the next 3/4 cycle due to arrive on June 16th 2015 was going to coincide with a price low or a high. As the year 2015 began, it was much more clear that it was going to be a low. That January I did an interview with Jeff Berwick of Anarchast Podcast and I explained how the price point of $160 that Bitcoin fell to just a few weeks prior met my bearish target, but it came 6 months too early and I was hopping to see that price in the summer time instead to meet the June 16 key date. In that video I also talked about how Europe will be the driving force to put Bitcoin back in the spotlight with their Bank closures. While I knew that Greece was the one in big financial trouble, and I focused on Greece a month later when presenting at Jeff Berwick's Anarchapulco Conference, during the interview I talked about Italy as the example. To this day I credit the change in Bitcoin price trend from an 18 month Bear Market to a Bull Market to have taken place in June 2015. Here is a June 16th Reuters headline "Bitcoin surges as Grexit worries mount" before the inevitable banking shutdown on Sunday June 28th 2015.
I never took the June 16th, 2015 date seriously at the time and after I missed my perfect entry to load up on Bitcoin in the $100-250 price range, I swore I would not ignore the next critical date (now 1 month away at time of writing) and this date is set to be way more significant as it's a full cycle vs quarter cycle like the last one. After the June 2015 period was clearly a low, I spent the last two years talking about how Bitcoin should reach its price high in August 2017. But just like in 2015 where the low came a few months early we potentially had the high come a few months early as well as bitcoin has now pulled back almost 25% from its all time high of just under $3,000 first week of June. Bitcoin moves quickly and with the SegWit2x vs UASF resolutions, there is still plenty of unknowns between now and inevitable dates in August that will shape the Bitcoin ecosystem for years to come:
So assuming that this date is actually significant, what are some of the things to expect from knowing it. At this point it must be pointed out that while this type of time analysis has occasionally been able to identify price highs or low to the day (Feb 27th, 2007), it does not necessarily have to coincide with a price reversal. In fact, if it always coincided with a price reversal (assuming these dates are even useful), everyone would have been a billionaire trader long ago.
A. Market becomes very optimistic on Bitcoin scaling into Aug 11th: This outcome is starting to seem unlikely. When the price was rising between April & June it looked like there was nothing stopping it and SegWit activation via UASF was going to be a sell event from the $3,000-$4,000 price range making August 11th (or near there) a price high.
B. Market becomes very pessimistic on Bitcoin scaling into Aug 11th: This outcome is starting to become more likely. If SegWit2x continues to be a clown show shacking market confidence, we could see continued price drops into uncertainty and a potential price low as SegWit Activates 1st week of August bringing back set confidence. In this case price could reverse around Aug 11th from a range of $1,200 – $1,800 setting off a new Bull Run to the next key cycle date in 2.15 years (or at least till the Hard Fork drums of SegWit2x start beating)
C. Price is NOT trending into first week of August and remains choppy: In this case we will be looking for this date to correspond to some kind of resolution on SegWit. It may be when the Ecosystem realizes UASF has succeeded or the day people like me admit defeat of the movement. It might be a day on which SegWit2x causes an accidental Hard Fork making Bitcoin Unusable, the day UASF side of the Chain Split gets a PoW change, or some other critical event. In either case, events on or around this date will shape the future trend of Bitcoin (from adoption to price in either direction) just like the Greek Banking Shutdown did around the last key date.
D. This is all nonsense and completely irrelevant: Yes, I am fully aware that this sounds like an Astrological reading of the Bitcoin horoscope.
At this time I would like knowledge the fact that this is completely speculative and i'm not really using Martin Armstrong's supper computer for date generations. The math could be very different when done by a professional. In addition, the dates in questions would have been different if way we used the publication of the White Paper Instead…. I wonder if it would have fell on August 1st :).
Here is the python code thanks to a loyal followers of my content, enjoy:
from math import pi
genesis_datetime = '2009-01-03 19:15:05'
date_fmt = '%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S'
seconds_in_a_day = 60 * 60 * 24
cyclic_period_seconds = 1000 * pi * seconds_in_a_day
return time.mktime(datetime.datetime.strptime(date_str, date_fmt).timetuple())
return time.strftime(date_fmt, time.localtime(epoch_time))
genesis_timestamp = date2epoch(genesis_datetime)
print('Cyclic period (days): %s' % (cyclic_period_seconds / seconds_in_a_day))
print('Genesis: %s' % epoch2date(genesis_timestamp))
print('One cyclic period after genesis: %s' % epoch2date(genesis_timestamp + cyclic_period_seconds))
print('Two cyclic periods after genesis: %s' % epoch2date(genesis_timestamp + 2 * cyclic_period_seconds))
for i in range(0, 41):
frac = i / 4.0 # break down into quarter cycles
print("[%s + %s cycles]: %s" % (epoch2date(genesis_timestamp), frac, epoch2date(genesis_timestamp + frac * cyclic_period_seconds)))
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Tone Vays – Blockchain/Bitcoin Consultant & Traditional Derivatives Trader
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This entry was posted in Bitcoin Investments and tagged August 11 Bitcoin Analysis Martin Armstrong SegWit Time Analysis
WCN Bitcoin Group #149 – "Satoshi" Speaks – Alphabay Down – $50M Fund – $55,000 Bitcoin
Posted on July 10, 2017 10:52 pm by
July 7th from NYC: On this episode we are joined by Kyle Torpey who has not joined in a while. Here is the TL;DR
0:01:00 – Fake Satoshi's Speech: There was a crazy presentation by Craig Wright that is a must watch. He clearly want to centralize bitcoin so that a few people control the protocol and you need a $20,000 node to maintain the history of transactions. His presentation will go a long way in helping UASF and activating segwit sooner than later.
0:16:30 – Erik Voorhees Thinks Bitcoin Can Be Replaced: I'm not sure if Erik is clueless when it comes to bitcoin scaling or pushing an agenda to help his business. I see a big problem with him agreeing to run SegWit2x code before he even knew who was going to program that code.
0:39:00 – Alphabay Goes Down: For a about a day, the most popular dark net market site went down. Since they are back, I do not believe they will be exit scamming any time soon.
0:55:00 – Bain Manager Launches $50 Million Bitcoin and Ethereum Fund: This is crazy, I understand that people cannot hold bitcoin themselves and need to have someone do it for them. However, he plans to buy nonsense like Ethereum, Ripple and Dash. There is obviously risk with having someone else hold your keys but actively trading bitcoin and especially actively trading or holding Alts will never outperform Bitcoin on the long term.
1:17:00 – Wall Street strategist weighs in on bitcoin, sees it worth as much as $55,000: The article does not provide much detail as to where the value comes from and is also lacking details as to why Bitcoin will replace gold…. I explain why.
TONE'S UPCOMING SCHEDULE...
State of Digital Money – LA @ CROSS CAMPUS DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES
Jul 22 all-day
The State of Digital Money, hosted by Cureativ, is Los Angeles' premier professional event and conference focused on the conversation of the evolving trends and emerging technologies disrupting the global financial system and worldwide transactions. In recent years, fintech has seen billions of dollars of growth in investments, capitalizing on disruptive technologies in payment services, wealth management, and funding applications. In early 2017, the most prominent digital currency, bitcoin, reaches an all-time high since November of 2013, validating a continued disruptive value of the cryptocurrency on a global scale. Simultaneously, blockchain technology, the underlying system in which bitcoin is founded on, makes major strides as financial institutions and enterprise technology companies explore its potential applications and it's ability to improve upon digital security and valuable asset transactions.
The State of Digital Money 2017 will gather influential thought leaders, stakeholders, and innovators to discuss these emerging market trends and opportunities for the future. Benefits of this event will include the following:
Exclusive business networking with high level executives
Original content from panel discussions and keynote presentations on the state and future of digital money issues and trends
Case studies and applications from enterprise companies
Technology showcases, applications, and interactive workshops
Breakout sessions for in-depth conversations and education on emerging fintech trends and applications in blockchain technology
Additional networking receptions and intimate social gatherings
Bitcoin Conf – Kiev
Sep 21 all-day
The Trading Show – NYC
Oct 3 all-day
Unparalleled opportunities to do business with top trading firms, quant funds, end investors, banks, brokers and technology providers
October 3, 2017 | Tribeca Three Sixty°| New York, NY
Hackers Congress – Prague @ Paralelní Polis
Oct 6 – Oct 8 all-day
ABOUT HCPP17 – LIBERATE!
In the view of ongoing global war on cash and tightening financial regulations, we have chosen the topic of Hackers Congress Paralelni Polis 2017 to be the financial and economic freedom.
Real digital privacy starts with protecting your financial transactions. Leaving no traces. Making impossible to see or intervene your voluntary economic interactions. With the rise of anonymous cryptocurrencies, for the first time in our human history, we can do a global business and stay anonymous.
Anonymous prediction markets, anonymous anti-government insurance, anonymous crowdfunded whistleblowing, decentralized cryptomarkets, anonymous perfect corruption – all these crypto technologies will undermine the current authoritative systems.
And make the significant change. Silently. With no violence or politicians. It's time. Liberate yourself!
Join us at the 4rd Hackers Congress Paralelni Polis with hundreds of freedom enthusiasts, tech-entrepreneurs, activists, artists and cryptoanarchists to celebrate the age of digital freedom and decentralization!
The congress program starts on Friday, 6th October at 13:00 and ends on Sunday, 8th October at 18:00. The venue opens at 9:00 each day. Official laguage is English.
LaBit Conf – Columbia
Oct 26 – Oct 27
WEC – Orlando @ Hilton Bonnet Creek
Nov 3 – Nov 4
WSBA – NYC @ New York Law School
Nov 14 all-day
Oct 15 – Oct 17 all-day
OTHER ITEMS OF INTEREST:
Colin Cantrell of Nexus: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2xYcL2B4-U&t=4s
NYC Bit License: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OekcvedMNs
Legal Panel Hosted by Me from the Men's Bathroom haha: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-Au58dWLII&t=2322s