So the trend is clear. Baby boomers are also going to start pulling on Medicare and Social Security in the upcoming decade putting additional strains on the system. In other words, more money is going to go away from housing. There was an article I read recently about many college grads moving back home because they have no job. Forget about buying, these recent grads can’t even afford a rental. So the vacancy rate in rentals and housing units is at record levels. We have years of inventory to work through thanks to this historic bubble.
The decade ahead does not look good for housing. Beside the above factors, what if mortgage rates go up? It is only a matter of time given the policies of the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve. And are we going to see tax credits forever? Is the Fed going to buy more mortgage backed securities? We are reaching a tipping point of another crisis because so much focus has veered away from the real economy and has obsessed on housing and finance as a panacea for our economic ills. Welcome to your second lost decade and thanks to Japan, we have failed to learn what history has taught us only years ago.
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