The raw numbers show clear acceleration of the deterioration in the Funds dynamics. They also give us some insights into the employment situation in the country. The conclusions are not good.
The 1st Q 2010 YoY top line for the Fund is down by 6%. A very significant drop. There are 160mm workers that contribute to SS. The simple math would suggest that there are 9.3mm workers that are no longer contributing to the system (or are contributing at a much lower rate). The BLS NFP report, which looks at a different set of numbers for employment, suggests that the drop in payrolls is only 2.5mm during the same period. This is not an apples to apples comparison, however, I have looked at this from every which way and it is my conclusion that the BLS numbers have to be significantly understating the loss in jobs. The payroll tax receipt numbers can’t be that badly skewed. They are hard numbers.
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