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News Link • Economy - Economics USA

NFP Employment Numbers Fudged By Birth Death Model and Census

Keep in mind the birth-death in March was +81,000 (vs. 97,000 in February) for the adjusted metric, so one wonders how much of this gain was purely adjusted on paper. If one excludes birth-death we get -67,000. The U-6 rate increased by 10 bps, to 16.9%. Average hourly earning decreased by 0.1% to $22.47 even as the average weekly hours increased by six minutes to 34 hours. The question on everyone's mind: is this statistic improvement in the data sufficient for the Fed to reconsider ZIRP. The answer is a resounding no. Although keep an eye on the 10 Year. We may just break 4% today.

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