Bottom line: This recovery is going to stall in the second half of 2010 unless… But, Obama probably doesn’t get that. As for investors, Edwards says: The trend is your friend until it meets a bend, that trend is now the investor’s enemy.
The chart I found most compelling was the change in analyst optimism mapped against the 6-month change in the S&P. Note, we are measuring the first derivatives for analyst opinions here. So that means the rate of change is slowing even while the optimism is increasing. Notice how well the datasets have coincided over the past decade.
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