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News Link • Politics: Libertarian Campaigns

Handicapping the LNC Chair Election

• Kn@ppster
My guess is that either Root will win a surprise first-ballot majority, or that it it will go to four or more ballots, and that Myers will be eliminated on the first ballot and Hancock on the second.
 
First Ballot

Root: ~40%
Phillies: ~20%
Hancock: ~20%
Hinkle: ~12%
Myers: ~8%

Second Ballot

Root: ~41%
Phillies: ~21%
Hinkle: ~20%
Hancock: ~18%

Third Ballot

Root: ~44%
Phillies and Hinkle: ??%
NOTA: ~5%

What happens next depends on whether Hancock's non-NOTA voters go to Phillies or Hinkle. My guess is Phillies, but it's nothing like a sure thing.

2 Comments in Response to

Comment by Thomas Knapp
Entered on:

Powell,

I was leaning toward your prediction as well, until I noticed something: A very high percentage of the delegates have never been national convention delegates before, and it's likely that most of them have joined the Libertarian Party in the last two years.

 Where did they come from?

 I don't think they came from the R3VOLution, Campaign For Liberty, etc. -- because the LP blew its chances of heavy recruitment from that part of the movement when it nominated Barr/Root, when Barr screwed the pooch over the joint press conference thing, etc.

It seems more likely to me that most of these new-to-the-party delegates are folks who saw Wayne Allyn Root on Fox News and such over the last couple of years and said to themselves "oh, I see, the LP is like the Republican Party if the Republican Party was a multi-level marketing scheme.  Sounds good to me!"

Within the broader movement, radical libertarians are the driving force. Within the LP, radical libertarians are at present a demoralized faction. I agree that the LP needs its radical libertarians more than radical libertarians need the LP, but so far as I can tell most LP members don't see it that way.

If anyone but Root wins, it will probably be Hinkle, the "middle of the road / establishment" candidate, which is sort of what you said. I just don't think that Ernie will do as well as you do, because much of his "base" has given up on the LP already and won't be there to vote for him.

Comment by Powell Gammill
Entered on:

Knapp would know better than me, but I have felt all along that Ernie and WAR would eat one another, and the same tired, mashed potatoes LNC or former LNC good old comfort boy retread will get the nod as always.


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