Both Obama and Geithner will be pushing for a growth package. It is likely that some of the other countries are going to give the US a thumbs down on that. America is going to be the only major country left that is continuing down the path of fiscal insanity.
The final communiqué will have some nice talk about global coordination and a big “thank you” to China for stepping up to the plate and adjusting its FX policy. Behind the scenes it will be less friendly. A number of countries will attempt to chastise the US for its profligate ways. No one at the meeting will really be satisfied that China adjusted its FX rate against the dollar by a measly ½% as a ticket to the show.
Should the US be held up as “the way not to do it” or if we getting some snotty comments from a finance minister or two then we will see this in the FX markets on Sunday night. The one thing that no one is thinking about in the summer of 2010 is a dollar problem. That is probably the best reason why one might pop up.
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