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Gallup Predicts A Democratic Party Rout In The November Midterms

Gallup presents some troubling statistics for the democrats as we approach mid-term elections (a mere three months away). In a nutshell, the party of a president who has a sub-50% rating into midterms, has lost, on average, 36 seats since 1946. Alternatively, presidents with a popularity rating over 50%, lose just 14. As Gallup says: "The clear implication is that the Democrats are vulnerable to losing a significant number of House seats this fall with Barack Obama's approval rating averaging 45% during the last two full weeks of Gallup Daily tracking. The Republicans would need to gain 40 House seats to retake majority control." Of course, the administration (and its dwindling members) is well-aware of this fact, which is why the next three months will likely see a record amount of pandering, populism and outright manipulation of everything that can be manipulated: that includes mortgages rates, and of course, stocks. Which leads us to observe the calendar of FOMC meetings until November: there are two - tomorrow and September 21. However, for a Fed loosening decision to have a material impact, the September meeting is likely cutting it too close to the election date, as the market will likely not have enough time to digest a favorable outcome, or in turn will be into its reactionary phase by the time November rolls around. Furthermore, the traditionally busy post-Labor day docket will likely mean events on the economic front already have to be in motion by then. Lastly, the fact that the Fed will have just a bare minimum quorum of just four directors through September 10 (at a minimum), means that any decision in the 11 days between then and the 21st will likely be far more problematic than one which has to be taken tomorrow. Which is why from a purely political calendar point of view, tomorrow's Fed meeting is likely seen by the administration as a make or break. The tenuous 40 seat lead which will likely disappear should the current economic trajectory not change, is certainly on the radar for both Obama, and the very independent Federal Reserve. More observations from Gallup: On a historical basis, the Democrats under Jimmy Carter suffered the slimmest seat loss of a party whose president was below 50% approval, losing 11 seats in the 1978 midterms. More recently, Bill Clinton in 1994 and George W. Bush in 2006 saw their parties lose enough seats in the House to turn party control over to the opposition party when they had less than majority approval. The president's party nearly always loses seats in midterm elections, regardless of how well the president is rated by the public. Since World War II, only Clinton in 1998 and Bush in 2002 saw their parties gain seats in a midterm. Both men had approval ratings above 60% at the time of those elections. However, the parties of the other three presidents with ratings above 60% (Eisenhower in 1954, Kennedy in 1962, and Reagan in 1986) lost seats. In general, though, the more popular a president is, the fewer seats his party loses, as presidents with approval ratings above 60% have averaged just a three-seat loss. Bottom Line With the Democratic Party in control of the White House and Congress, and key predictors of midterm seat change -- including presidential approval, congressional approval, and national satisfaction -- below average historically, the Democrats are clearly fighting an uphill battle this midterm election year. And below is the empirical evidence:

3 Comments in Response to

Comment by Ross Wolf
Entered on:

Patriot Americans should avoid getting so over confident about November that many people don’t vote. I’ve seen this happen before. It is also important to keep in mind the X-Factor, that is something happening un-expectantly that helps democrats in the run up to voting. We haven't won until we win. The Democrat sleaze-bags are capable of anything. Don’t under estimate the communist organizers that are relentlessly involved in unions, the illegal-immigration issue and other organizations; they can become deadly if they find an issue to promote that discredits Tea Party and Patriot candidates. Communist are like sewer rats, they hide, lay in wait for an opportunity to bite into something.

Comment by Lola Flores
Entered on:

This is beautiful!  Demokracy at work.  The Republicans were replaced by the Democrats for being crooked, immoral, liars, cheats, incompetent, thieves.  The Democrats replaced them.  Now, the Democrats are being replaced for being crooked, immoral, liars, cheats, incompetent, thieves by the very Republicans who were kicked out for being crooked, immoral, liars, cheats, incompetent, thieves.  Not that there is anything wrong with that, of course. 


And here they are, the Amerikans "spreading democraky" [at the point of a gun] to the rest of the world.  Ha ha! 

Comment by Richard Baehr
Entered on:

 They deserve to be run out of office in light of what they have done to the American People in the past 21 months +. Just like our president there is a total disconnect with the will of the American people. Our government today is a sham and our founding fathers are turning in their graves seeing the disrespect this Congress and Whitehouse has for our consitution

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