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News Link • Economy - Economics USA

November 2009 YOY Peak in Oil Prices Indicates Recession by Late 2010

No, that headline is not a typo. This interesting fact comes to us courtesy of The Global Macro Investor: “Oil prices are always a precursor to recessions. We hit the magic 100% YoY rise in November 2009 and went on to hit the third highest YoY% rise in the history of oil markets… “The magic 100% level in the YoY change in oil gives us a 100% chance of a recession in the succeeding twelve months. This indicator suggests that ISM will fall to 40, or even 35, in the coming months before recovering…”

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