MarketWatch is reporting the consensus for July existing home sales is 4.85 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate).
And from Dow Jones: Week Ahead
"July existing-home sales ... likely declined 4.3% from June"
June sales were reported as 5.37 million, so a decline of 4.3% would be 5.14 million SAAR.
Note: July existing home sales will be reported next Tuesday.
Housing economist Tom Lawler's preliminary forecast was 3.95 million SAAR (based on a bottom up analysis).
Many of the regional reports showed sales declines of 20% or more from July 2009 when the NAR reported sales of 5.14 million SAAR. A 20% decline from July 2009 would be in the low 4 millions ...
Maybe the MarketWatch and Dow Jones consensus numbers are incorrect (other numbers will be released later today), or there is probably going to be a big miss next Tuesday. Take the WAY under!
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