Economic rebound eh? Remember, we're a consumer economy......
A record high 43 percent of American shoppers plan to spend less during the last quarter of the year than they did in 2009, while only 11.0 percent expect to spend more this Christmas season, according to the group's research.
That's bad. It was bad during the depths of the recession, but this is dramatically worse. For comparison:
To put these results into perspective, when Beemer polled consumers two years ago, during the financial crisis, consumers planned to spend less by a ratio of 3-to-1. This year, the responses are negative by a ratio of about 4-to-1—something Beemer hasn't seen in the more than 25 years he has been conducting this holiday survey.
Oh, by the way, of the retail analysts who look at these things on a macro level, this guy has an excellent record, where the various industry-pumping surveys have a terrible track record of accuracy (e.g. "Shoppertrack" and similar)
This ties in quite nicely with the utter decimation we've seen in trucking volumes, along with the unprecedented number of people (750,000 in the last month!) rolling off extended unemployment.
What should you do?
Remember, they always go up. Cramer and CNBS say they're going to - if the economy is good and this forecast is wrong, stocks will go up. If the economy sucks The Fed will make stocks go up. And make real sure to concentrate your buying in those names with insane P/Es such as AMZN, NFLX, CRM and other similar bubbly names. After all, why wouldn't you want to own something that could lose 75% of its value in the space of a few short weeks?
Just like houses always go up, remember?
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