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News Link • Economy - Economics USA

Office, Mall and Lodging Investment Continues Crash in 3rd Quarter

• CalculatedRiskBlog.com
 
This graph shows investment in offices as a percent of GDP. Office investment as a percent of GDP peaked at 0.46% in Q1 2008 and has declined sharply to a new series low as a percent of GDP (data series starts in 1959). Reis reported that the office vacancy rate is at a 17 year high at 17.5% in Q3, up from 17.4% in Q2, and 16.6% in Q3 2009. With the office vacancy rate still rising, office investment will probably decline further - although most of the decline in investment has already happened. The second graph is for investment in malls. Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and has fallen by two-thirds (note that investment includes remodels, so this will not fall to zero). Mall investment is also at a series low (as a percent of GDP). Reis reported that the mall vacancy rate declined slightly in Q3 2010 from the record high in Q2. However the vacancy rate will have to decline substantially before there is significant new investment.

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