How Ron Paul Can Throw a Big Wrench Into Romney's Campaign
• by Mike "Mish" ShedlockThere are 2,286 republican delegates. It takes 1,144 delegates to win the Republication nomination. With four candidates remaining, many are wondering about the likelihood of a brokered convention where no candidate wins in the first round.
Conventional wisdom suggests there will not be a brokered convention. From where I sit, one is increasingly likely.
Following is a table of delegates won so far (totals from Real Clear Politics Delegate Count), plus my projections of all primaries and caucuses through Super-Tuesday on March 6 (based on recent polls).
| Total to Date | - | 243 | 99 | 47 | 32 | 20 |
| Iowa | Jan 3 | 28 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | Jan 10 | 12* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| South Carolina | Jan 21 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 0 |
| Florida | Jan 31 | 50* | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevada | Feb 4 | 28 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Minnesota | Feb 7 | 40 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 4 |
| Colorado | Feb 7 | 36 | 9 | 17 | 2 | 1 |
| Maine | Feb 11 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| Michigan | Feb 28 | 30* | 13 | 11 | 2 | 4 |
| Arizona | Feb 28 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Washington | Mar 3 | 43 | 13 | 17 | 5 | 8 |
| Georgia | Mar 6 | 76 | 19 | 22 | 27 | 8 |
| Ohio | Mar 6 | 66 | 19 | 27 | 13 | 7 |
| Tennessee | Mar 6 | 58 | 16 | 25 | 7 | 10 |
| Virginia | Mar 6 | 49 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | Mar 6 | 43 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 5 |
| Massachusetts | Mar 6 | 41 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 3 |
| Idaho | Mar 6 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| North Dakota | Mar 6 | 28 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 3 |
| Alaska | Mar 6 | 27 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 3 |
| Vermont | Mar 6 | 17 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Super Tuesday Est | Mar 6 | 782 | 359 | 202 | 104 | 72 |
| If Paul Wins Idaho | Mar 6 | 782 | 327 | 202 | 104 | 104 |
* States penalized half of their delegates.
Thru Super-Tuesday Scenarios
Romney 359 Others 423 (Romney wins Idaho)
Romney 327 Others 455 (Romney loses Idaho)
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1 Comments in Response to How Ron Paul Can Throw a Big Wrench Into Romney's Campaign
pauls website says he s second in delagates.
what am i missing?