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News Link • Politics: Republican Campaigns

How Ron Paul Can Throw a Big Wrench Into Romney's Campaign

• by Mike **QQ**Mish**QQ** Shedlock
 

There are 2,286 republican delegates. It takes 1,144 delegates to win the Republication nomination. With four candidates remaining, many are wondering about the likelihood of a brokered convention where no candidate wins in the first round.

Conventional wisdom suggests there will not be a brokered convention. From where I sit, one is increasingly likely.

Following is a table of delegates won so far (totals from Real Clear Politics Delegate Count), plus my projections of all primaries and caucuses through Super-Tuesday on March 6 (based on recent polls).

  StatePrimaryCountRomneySantorumGingrichPaul
Total to Date - 243 99 47 32 20
Iowa Jan 3 28 6 7 0 0
New Hampshire Jan 10 12* 7 0 0 3
South Carolina Jan 21 25 2 0 23 0
Florida Jan 31 50* 50 0 0 0
Nevada Feb 4 28 14 3 6 5
Minnesota Feb 7 40 2 17 1 4
Colorado Feb 7 36 9 17 2 1
Maine Feb 11 24 9 3 0 7
Michigan Feb 28 30* 13 11 2 4
Arizona Feb 28 29 29 0 0 0
Washington Mar 3 43 13 17 5 8
Georgia Mar 6 76 19 22 27 8
Ohio Mar 6 66 19 27 13 7
Tennessee Mar 6 58 16 25 7 10
Virginia Mar 6 49 49 0 0 0
Oklahoma Mar 6 43 11 18 9 5
Massachusetts Mar 6 41 28 8 2 3
Idaho Mar 6 32 32 0 0 0
North Dakota Mar 6 28 10 12 3 3
Alaska Mar 6 27 10 11 3 3
Vermont Mar 6 17 11 4 1 1
Super Tuesday Est Mar 6 782 359 202 104 72
If Paul Wins Idaho Mar 6 782 327 202 104 104

* States penalized half of their delegates.

Thru Super-Tuesday Scenarios
Romney 359 Others 423 (Romney wins Idaho)
Romney 327 Others 455 (Romney loses Idaho)

1 Comments in Response to

Comment by jim davis
Entered on:

 pauls website says he s second in delagates.

what am i missing?


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