
Decoding The Allure Of The Almanac
• by Scott NeumanThere's been something wacky with the weather this winter, and many forecasters never saw it coming.
Among them was The Old Farmer's Almanac, the quirky, centuries-old mix of historical data, prognostications and folk wisdom. Millions of people consult the almanac, which uses a secret formula to come up with its annual, yearlong weather forecasts, even though meteorologists say it has a dubious track record.
Winter Gone Wrong
The Old Farmer's Almanac predicted this winter would bring above-normal snowfall from New England to Georgia and across the Midwest to the Pacific Northwest, with below-normal levels of precipitation in drought-stricken Texas.
Not quite.
"Precipitation-wise, much of the country has been drier than average, with one exception: an area that includes Texas," says Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
In fact, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's outlook for this winter hasn't fared much better.