Here's the key threshold:
We think that risk assets are likely to move higher as long as US data remain consistent with GDP growth of somewhat more than 2%.
The next several hours may be decisive...
Given more mixed news in March, and the likelihood that weather-related boosts will fade in the month or two ahead, the stakes have been raised for the releases over the next 24 hours. At the risk of oversimplification, if the ISM and global PMIs bounce convincingly, we think the market is likely to be able to make fresh highs. If instead we see a second month of declines, we are likely to turn more cautious.
European PMI data will come out super-early on Monday.
Oh, and of course, this just leads up to what will be a massive week for data, ending with the Jobs Report on Friday.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend!