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News Link • Economy - Economics USA

The Stock Market Is Now 34 To 50 Percent Overvalued

•, Doug Short

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I updated at the beginning of the month.

The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more) The relationship of the S&P Composite to a regression trendline (more)

To facilitate comparisons, I've adjusted the two P/E ratios and Q Ratio to their arithmetic means and the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite to its exponential regression. Thus the percentages on the vertical axis show the over/undervaluation as a percent above mean value, which I'm using as a surrogate for fair value. Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 34% to 50%, depending on the indicator. This is an increase from the previous month's 33% to 46% range.

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