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News Link • General Opinion

NASSIM TALEB WARNS: Stay Out Of The Investment Industry

• http://www.businessinsider.com, Matthew Boesler
 Taleb explains how as funds have become more and more concentrated among a growing group of investment managers he calls the "spurious tail," it has basically become impossible to be successful in the industry by putting in the work.  

You just have to get lucky.

The reason for this is that the track records of successful managers are increasingly characterized by huge wins resulting from "spurious performance," according to Taleb, which has allowed them to "rise to the top for no reasons other than mere luck, with subsequent rationalizations, analyses, explanations, and attributions."

Those winning managers, in turn, attract more investments to their funds, increasing their allocations based on past performance, making them difficult for other managers to compete with as the winners grow their market share.

Taleb thinks the industry is already past the point of no return. He writes that "an operator starting today, no matter his skill level, and ability to predict prices, will be outcompeted by the spurious tail."

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